Robert Tonyan Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.3% pass rate.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to garner 5.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
Robert Tonyan's 30.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 24.7.
Robert Tonyan's receiving talent has improved this year, notching 4.5 yards per game compared to just 2.3 last year.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (56.8%) versus tight ends this year (56.8%).
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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