Robert Tonyan Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-190/+150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to notch 4.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan's receiving performance has gotten better this season, averaging 3.4 yards per game compared to just 2.3 last season.
Robert Tonyan's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 70.8% to 89.9%.
The New York Jets linebackers profile as the 6th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Robert Tonyan has been less involved as a potential target this season (53.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (66.8%).

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