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Robert Tonyan

Robert Tonyan Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Robert Tonyan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-123/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +102 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -104.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Robert Tonyan has run a route on 62.6% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile among TEs.
  • THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to earn 4.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
  • Robert Tonyan's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 70.8% to 84.0%.
  • The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
  • The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
  • The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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