Robert Tonyan Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-123/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +102 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Robert Tonyan has run a route on 62.6% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to earn 4.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 70.8% to 84.0%.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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