Robert Tonyan Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 12:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+143/-199).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -184 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -199.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to accrue 4.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Robert Tonyan has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 14.5% this year, which ranks in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Robert Tonyan's play as a receiver has gotten better this year, compiling 3.9 yards per game compared to a measly 2.3 last year.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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