Robert Tonyan Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.
Robert Tonyan has run a route on 66.8% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 85th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.2%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (64.2%).
The Minnesota Vikings linebackers project as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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