Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling with backup quarterback Tyson Bagent.
The Bears are a heavy 8.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has shown bad efficiency against TEs this year, allowing 8.39 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the league.
The Chargers linebackers profile as the 9th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bears.
Robert Tonyan Jr.'s 20.8% Route% this season conveys an impressive diminishment in his passing attack usage over last season's 60.5% rate.
After averaging 22.0 air yards per game last season, Robert Tonyan Jr. has posted significant losses this season, now pacing 6.0 per game.
Robert Tonyan Jr. has notched a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (9.0) this year than he did last year (28.0).

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