Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:50 PM EST

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
Robert Tonyan has run a route on 62.9% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to accrue 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan has compiled a colossal 28.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.50 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.