Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Robert Tonyan has run a route on 59.8% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Robert Tonyan's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 70.8% to 83.7%.
The Detroit Lions defense has conceded the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (59.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Robert Tonyan has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (32.0 per game).
Robert Tonyan's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, notching just 7.64 yards-per-target compared to a 8.75 rate last year.
Robert Tonyan's skills in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this season, averaging a mere 3.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.78 rate last season.

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