Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (+113/-149).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to notch 3.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan has been a big part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 13.5% this year, which puts him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Robert Tonyan has been among the leading pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an impressive 30.0 yards per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Robert Tonyan has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
Robert Tonyan's pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, notching a mere 7.14 yards-per-target vs a 8.75 rate last season.

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