Robert Tonyan Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-370).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
Robert Tonyan has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.2% this year, which ranks in the 87th percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan's 30.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 24.7.
Robert Tonyan's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 70.8% to 87.4%.
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Robert Tonyan has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
The Washington Commanders pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (56.8%) versus tight ends this year (56.8%).

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