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Robert Tonyan

Robert Tonyan Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 6

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets

Robert Tonyan Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+310/-460).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Robert Tonyan has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 17.9% this year, which ranks in the 89th percentile among tight ends.

Robert Tonyan's 21.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 76th percentile for TEs.

Robert Tonyan's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 70.8% to 89.9%.

The New York Jets linebackers profile as the 6th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.

Robert Tonyan has accrued far fewer air yards this season (10.0 per game) than he did last season (32.0 per game).

The New York Jets defense has conceded the least touchdowns through the air in football to tight ends: 0.00 per game this year.

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