Robert Tonyan Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+346/-669).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -644 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -669.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Robert Tonyan has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 13.3% this year, which places him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan's 26.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 79th percentile for tight ends.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Robert Tonyan's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 70.8% to 82.6%.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Robert Tonyan has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.9%) versus tight ends this year (67.9%).
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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