Rico Dowdle Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Rico Dowdle

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Rico Dowdle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+426/-456).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 65.2% red zone pass rate.
While Rico Dowdle has accounted for 54.8% of his team's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller part of Pittsburgh's ground game near the end zone in this week's contest at 36.1%.
Rico Dowdle slots into the 78th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) with a superb 13.9 figure since the start of last season.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call just 62.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased ground volume.
When talking about air yards, Rico Dowdle ranks in the lowly 9th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, with just -3.0 per game.
This year, the tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a paltry 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.