Rico Dowdle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Rico Dowdle

NFL · Player Props

Rico Dowdle

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 1, 2023 2:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Rico Dowdle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-166/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in football (63.6% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cowboys.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
The Seahawks safeties project as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Cowboys, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
Opposing squads have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the league (in a neutral context) against the Cowboys defense this year, averaging 28.19 seconds per play.
With a feeble 0.9 adjusted catches per game (25th percentile) this year, Rico Dowdle has been as one of the worst running backs in the pass game in the NFL.
This year, the formidable Seattle Seahawks defense has conceded a paltry 76.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 4th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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