Rico Dowdle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Rico Dowdle

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Rico Dowdle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Rico Dowdle has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 9.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year.
Rico Dowdle has been one of the best pass-game running backs last year, averaging an outstanding 15.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
This year, the anemic Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has conceded a monstrous 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 8th-worst in football.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call just 62.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased ground volume.
When talking about air yards, Rico Dowdle ranks in the lowly 9th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, with just -3.0 per game.
With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) last year, Rico Dowdle stands as one of the leading RBs in the pass game in football in space.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the NFL.