Rico Dowdle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Rico Dowdle

NFL · Player Props

Rico Dowdle

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 1, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Rico Dowdle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in football (63.6% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cowboys.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
With an excellent 7.1 adjusted yards per target (76th percentile) this year, Rico Dowdle has been among the leading pass-game RBs in football.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Cowboys, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
Opposing squads have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the league (in a neutral context) against the Cowboys defense this year, averaging 28.19 seconds per play.
In regards to air yards, Rico Dowdle ranks in the paltry 18th percentile among running backs this year, with just -2.0 per game.
This year, the formidable Seattle Seahawks defense has conceded a paltry 76.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 4th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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