Rico Dowdle Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Rico Dowdle

NFL · Player Props

Rico Dowdle

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Rico Dowdle Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+102/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -133 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased ground volume.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to run on 40.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call just 62.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
While Rico Dowdle has earned 53.6% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be much less involved in Pittsburgh's ground game in this week's game at 27.3%.
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's unit has been tremendous this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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