Richie James Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Richie James

NFL · Player Props

Richie James

WR · New York Giants

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Richie James Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+296/-523).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +328 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +296.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Richie James to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (16.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Richie James's 47.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 76th percentile for WRs.
Richie James has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a stellar 78.7% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 88th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Richie James ranks in the 1st percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.

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