Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 4:22 PM EST

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-108/-102).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (60.0% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Patriots.
The predictive model expects the Patriots to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
While Rhamondre Stevenson has received 5.6% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of New England's offense near the end zone this week at 11.9%.
In regards to air yards, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks in the towering 86th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a colossal 2.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Patriots, who are favored by 3 points.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 55.1% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
This year, the anemic Packers run defense has yielded a monstrous 1.25 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 5th-largest rate in football.
The Packers safeties rank as the best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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