Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-116/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.9% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast Rhamondre Stevenson to be much more involved in his team's passing game near the goal line this week (11.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.1% in games he has played).
Rhamondre Stevenson has posted a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among RBs. (This may not sound too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Rhamondre Stevenson places in the 89th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a staggering 17.8 mark this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a heavy 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The projections expect the Patriots to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are expected by the predictive model to run only 61.0 offensive plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.8 per game) this year.