Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-102/-102).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 60.5% red zone pass rate.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.
Rhamondre Stevenson's 18.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 88th percentile for running backs.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year.
This year, the porous New York Jets defense has given up a staggering 0.40 TDs through the air per game to opposing running backs: the 2nd-highest rate in football.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Patriots, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 54.2% of their chances: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Patriots are expected by the predictive model to call just 61.6 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
Out of all RBs, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks in the 76th percentile for red zone carries this year, making up 36.4% of the workload in his team's running game near the goal line.
Rhamondre Stevenson has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (-3.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).