Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 3, 2026 6:57 PM EST

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+173/-208).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -208.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The model projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.7% red zone pass rate.
While Rhamondre Stevenson has been responsible for 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of New England's pass game near the end zone in this game at 8.0%.
In regards to air yards, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks in the towering 98th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing a remarkable 9.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
Rhamondre Stevenson's 18.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 90th percentile for running backs.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by our trusted projection set to call only 61.2 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.
Rhamondre Stevenson's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 86.5% to 80.9%.
Rhamondre Stevenson has run for 0.35 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (84th percentile).
Since the start of last season, the anemic Buffalo Bills run defense has allowed a colossal 1.30 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the biggest rate in the NFL.