Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:48 PM EST

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+194/-199).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
At the present time, the 5th-most pass-focused team in football in the red zone (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
The Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.4 per game) since the start of last season.
As it relates to air yards, Rhamondre Stevenson grades out in the towering 99th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing a superb 9.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
Rhamondre Stevenson's 18.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 92nd percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see only 126.0 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
Out of all running backs, Rhamondre Stevenson grades out in the 81st percentile for red zone carries last year, taking on 40.3% of the usage in his offense's run game near the end zone.
Rhamondre Stevenson's 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year conveys a remarkable regression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 86.5% rate.
Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for 0.37 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL when it comes to RBs (84th percentile).
The Jaguars defense has conceded the 10th-fewest receiving TDs in the league to running backs: 0.16 per game since the start of last season.