Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 9, 2026 9:47 PM EST

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-122).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may suffer.
The Seahawks defense has been a bit of pass funnel last year, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (36.1 per game) last year.
Rhamondre Stevenson has compiled a massive 11.0 air yards per game last year: 99th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not seem too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The model projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
While Rhamondre Stevenson has accounted for 40.3% of his offense's red zone rush attempts in games he has played last year, the model projects him to be a more important option in New England's rushing attack near the end zone in this week's contest at 69.2%.
Rhamondre Stevenson has run for 0.41 touchdowns per game on the ground last year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league when it comes to RBs (86th percentile).
Last year, the strong Seahawks defense has conceded a measly 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.