Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing TD

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 64.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most run-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 46.9% red zone run rate.
Rhamondre Stevenson has garnered 59.1% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for 0.57 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (89th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 10th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
The New York Jets linebackers profile as the 10th-best unit in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.