Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 3, 2026 1:42 PM EST

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-104/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
With a remarkable 51.9% Route Participation Rate (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks among the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the NFL.
Our trusted projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to accumulate 3.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The Patriots offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Rhamondre Stevenson grades out as one of the leading pass-catching RBs since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 2.0 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

The Patriots have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 56.3% pass rate.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by our trusted projection set to call only 61.2 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.
Rhamondre Stevenson's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 86.5% to 80.9%.
The Bills safeties project as the 7th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.