Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-175/+145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
Our trusted projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to total 4.7 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Rhamondre Stevenson grades out as one of the top RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 3.3 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

Rhamondre Stevenson has been a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game this year (11.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (17.3%).
When talking about pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's collection of safeties has been very good this year, ranking as the best in football.

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