Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/-101).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -166 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Rhamondre Stevenson to accumulate 4.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

Rhamondre Stevenson has been much less involved in his offense's passing offense this season (10.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (17.3%).
The Cowboys safeties grade out as the 6th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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