Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New York Jets defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to earn 5.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been a more important option in his offense's passing attack this season (17.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (5.3%).
Rhamondre Stevenson's pass-catching performance been refined this year, compiling 3.8 yards per game compared to a measly 1.1 last year.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The New York Jets pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (70.1%) versus running backs this year (70.1%).

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