Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 3, 2026 10:52 PM EST

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-155/+123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ +123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
With a remarkable 51.9% Route Participation Rate (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks among the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the NFL.
Our trusted projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to accumulate 3.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs.
In regards to air yards, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks in the towering 98th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing a remarkable 9.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
The Patriots offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Patriots have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 56.3% pass rate.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by our trusted projection set to call only 61.2 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.
Rhamondre Stevenson's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 86.5% to 80.9%.
Rhamondre Stevenson's pass-catching efficiency has diminished this season, averaging a mere 5.52 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.36 figure last season.