Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:48 PM EST

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-108/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
At the moment, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.
The Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.4 per game) since the start of last season.
As it relates to air yards, Rhamondre Stevenson grades out in the towering 99th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing a superb 9.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
Rhamondre Stevenson's 18.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 92nd percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see only 126.0 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson's 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year conveys a remarkable regression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 86.5% rate.
Rhamondre Stevenson's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, notching a measly 5.45 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.36 figure last season.
The Jaguars linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.