Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 9, 2026 9:47 PM EST

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may suffer.
The Seahawks defense has been a bit of pass funnel last year, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (36.1 per game) last year.
The model projects Rhamondre Stevenson to notch 4.4 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The model projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Rhamondre Stevenson ranks as one of the bottom running backs in football at grinding out extra yardage in the passing game, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while ranking in the 3rd percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. running backs last year, giving up 5.31 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the league.