Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+109/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to accrue 5.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this season (17.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (5.9%).

Favors Under

Rhamondre Stevenson has accumulated a puny -3.0 air yards per game this year: just 8th percentile among running backs.
Rhamondre Stevenson's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 85.4% to 77.2%.
Rhamondre Stevenson's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, compiling a mere 4.76 yards-per-target vs a 7.25 rate last year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus RBs this year, surrendering 5.19 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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