Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to notch 5.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Rhamondre Stevenson has notched a paltry -3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 8th percentile among RBs.
Rhamondre Stevenson's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 85.4% to 81.7%.
Rhamondre Stevenson's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 5.20 yards-per-target vs a 7.25 mark last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (75.2%) to RBs this year (75.2%).

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