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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+348/-674).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +419 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +348.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Rhamondre Stevenson has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.8% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among running backs.

Rhamondre Stevenson's 28.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 7.7.

The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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