Rex Burkhead Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Rex Burkhead

NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing TD

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+314/-572).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +316 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +314.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Rex Burkhead to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack near the goal line this week (32.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.4% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends rank as the 5th-worst collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Texans are an enormous 14.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Houston Texans have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.4 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in run blocking.
Rex Burkhead has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest marks in the league among RBs (1st percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least TDs in football (0.54 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

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