Rex Burkhead Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 6th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Rex Burkhead to earn 4.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.7 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.
The Houston Texans offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.