Rex Burkhead Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-129/-101).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +127 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Rex Burkhead to earn 5.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.