Rex Burkhead Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Rex Burkhead

NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+160/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +175 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Rex Burkhead to accumulate 4.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Rex Burkhead's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 79.9% to 74.9%.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 8th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Houston Texans O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

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