Rex Burkhead Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Rex Burkhead

NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 5:00 PM UTC

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Rex Burkhead to garner 3.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
The Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 10th-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 59.7 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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