Rex Burkhead Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 69.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.4 plays per game.
Rex Burkhead's receiving effectiveness has declined this year, totaling just 4.23 yards-per-target compared to a 5.82 figure last year.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.89 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.