Rex Burkhead Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Rex Burkhead

NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+113/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Rex Burkhead has been much more involved in his offense's passing attack this year (12.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (6.5%).
Rex Burkhead has put up a whopping 5.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Rex Burkhead's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this year, notching a mere 4.60 yards-per-target compared to a 5.82 rate last year.

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