Rashod Bateman Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+567/-590).
Key Factors
Favors Over
The Baltimore Ravens will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Browns defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (39.4 per game) this year.
After totaling 34.0 air yards per game last season, Rashod Bateman has seen marked improvement this season, currently sitting at 51.0 per game.
Rashod Bateman's 40.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 28.2.
Rashod Bateman's 74.1% Adjusted Catch% this year reflects a noteable boost in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 56.2% rate.
Favors Under
This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 49.1% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Ravens to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 50.2% red zone run rate.
The projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 127.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Ravens O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all passing game metrics across the board.