Rashid Shaheed Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Rashid Shaheed

NFL · Player Props

Rashid Shaheed

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Rashid Shaheed Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -185 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point increase in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Rashid Shaheed has been more prominently used in his offense's passing game.

Favors Under

The Saints O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Rashid Shaheed's 63.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this season reflects a noteable regression in his receiving ability over last season's 81.7% figure.
This year, the formidable Falcons defense has conceded a meager 61.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 7th-lowest rate in the league.

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