Rashaad Penny Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Rashaad Penny

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:06 PM EST

Analysis

Rashaad Penny Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+157/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -166 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -215.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (62.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (46.2% in games he has played).
Rashaad Penny has run for 0.60 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (94th percentile).
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing teams have run for the least TDs in football (0.53 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos safeties rank as the 9th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.