Rashaad Penny Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Rashaad Penny

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Rashaad Penny Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to total 13.7 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
Rashaad Penny has been a more important option in his offense's running game this year (61.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (47.2%).
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 4th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best unit in football this year in regard to run defense.