Randall Cobb Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Randall Cobb

NFL · Player Props

Randall Cobb

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Randall Cobb Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+191/-282).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -278 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -282.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.
Randall Cobb has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.4% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 80th percentile among WRs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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