Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (+107/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Raheem Mostert has picked up 50.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in football among RBs (75th percentile).
The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 5.06 yards-per-carry.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be a less important option in his offense's running game this week (43.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.2% in games he has played).

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