Raheem Mostert Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing TD

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-330).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +224 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +215.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be much more involved in his offense's run game near the end zone this week (31.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
The Miami Dolphins have incorporated some form of misdirection on 56.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the least touchdowns in football (0.53 per game) vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles project as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.