Raheem Mostert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-158/+124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (63.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 52.9% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
The projections expect Raheem Mostert to total 3.6 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
With an outstanding 2.7 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) this year, Raheem Mostert ranks among the top pass-game running backs in the league.
Raheem Mostert's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 80.0% to 90.9%.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

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